
Philippines ‘Concerned’ Drought May Cut Rice Supply
The Philippines is “concerned” that low rainfall forecast through June may delay rice planting, curbing supplies in the world’s biggest buyer for a second year, a government official said. Rice futures rallied.
“What we are concerned about is the second half, if the rains don’t come in,” Agriculture Undersecretary Joel Rudinas said in an interview. “The way things are shaping up right now, it could have an impact on supplies” next year, he said.
Dry weather in the Philippines since June 2009 has depleted soil moisture levels and heavy rains are needed to prepare the land for the next crop, Rudinas said.
Depending on the size of the area affected, “that could figure in our import plan for next year,” he said.
Declining production in the Philippines may force the country to increase imports, potentially boosting prices. Rice futures traded in Chicago jumped to a 13-month high of $16.27 per 100 pounds in December as the Philippines rushed to secure supplies for this year after storms wiped out 1.38 million metric tons of the September-December harvest.
Futures have tumbled 11 percent since the country’s National Food Authority, which buys grains and maintains stockpiles, completed tenders for 2010 supplies, securing 2.25 million tons from exporters, the second-highest on record. Thai rice export prices, the benchmark for Asia, dropped 14 percent in the same period.
Rice for May delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade gained as much as 0.4 percent to $12.54 per 100 pounds, reversing an earlier 1.1 percent loss, and was at $12.505 at 3:30 p.m. Singapore time. The price of 100 percent grade-B Thai white rice declined 3.2 percent to $510 a ton on
April 7, the most recent available price from the Thai Rice Exporters Association and the lowest in at least a year.
El Nino
A one-month delay in the onset of the rainy season in the Philippines, which typically begins in the middle of May, “could influence our supply scenario,” Rudinas said. Dry weather caused by El Nino has destroyed 300,000 tons of the rice crop for harvest between March and May, Rudinas said, citing the latest reports. The decline in yields in affected areas may deepen as dry weather persists, he said, without citing an estimate.
Losses from El Nino, the phenomenon caused by a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that can lead to drought in parts of Asia, may be as much as 800,000 tons, Rudinas said in February.
The nation is targeting an output of 10 million tons of unmilled rice from this year’s September-December harvest, which will be planted beginning in June, Rudinas said. Output from the harvest plunged to 8.88 million tons last year.
Government officials involved in securing the nation’s food supply will meet by the end of this month to review the output forecast, he said.
By Bloomberg
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